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Industry Downturn Predicted
ABC Expects 2009-2010 to be “weak” for construction professionals. Also, NYPA launches weatherization program.
ABC Releases 2009-2010 Economic Forecast
Associated Builders and Contractors recently announced its economic forecast for the commercial and industrial construction industry.
“While the industry experienced a mixed bag in 2008, do not expect the same story in 2009,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
“For more than a year, economists have been discussing how weak the overall economy has been. The ongoing credit crunch began in earnest in August 2007 and the U.S. economy shrank during last year’s fourth quarter,” said Basu. “Because commercial construction typically lags the overall economy by one to two years, the weakness that has pummeled other segments of the nation’s economy has not been as apparent in commercial construction performance.”
However, ABC predicts change for 2009. “One of the most telling signs that we will see a downturn in commercial and industrial construction activity is the dramatic fall of the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the American Institute of Architects. In October, the ABI rating reached a historic low not seen since the rating system was established in 1995,” explained Basu.
Nonresidential construction employment was down 4.7 percent in October 2008, which ABC claims will be the least of the industry’s worries in 2009.
According to ABC, specific medium predictions for 2009 include: commercial buildingwill be off between 10 percent and 20 percent; lodging will be negatively impacted may decline 20 percent; office construction will be off between 15 and 25 percent; manufacturing will fall between 25 and 35 percent; institutional construction, will slip more than 5 percent; and electricity utility construction will decline 30 percent in 2009.
“ABC expects that the reversal in industry fortunes will be increasingly manifested in the 2009 and 2010 data,” said Basu. “It is worth noting that producer prices also will begin to decline more forcefully in the months ahead due to the deflation in key commodities, including copper, steel and oil. However, this will help accelerate the sector’s eventual recovery.”
LiMandri Speaks at NYIEC Luncheon
The New York Interagency Engineering Council recently held its annual luncheonat the Union League Club in Manhattan and invited New York City Building Commissioner Robert LiMandri to be the keynote speaker.
LiMandri focused on measures the agency has taken, and ongoing efforts to address construction safety.
“The commissioner brought home the chain of human tragedy and pain that construction accidents cause . . . and g ave some examples of how miscommunications resulted in serious construction accidents,” said a NYIEC spokesperson. “He elaborated on how [previous] accidents might have been prevented,” he said.
Included in the program was a question and answer period, which brought forth interesting discussions, including a comparison of how construction safety in the United States compares to other countries.
Over 120 architectural, engineering, and construction staff members from 17 agencies operating in the New York City region attended the luncheon.
NYPA to Help Lower Income New Yorkers
The New York Power Authority has recently launched an Energy Efficiency Program in Solvay, New York.
The Weatherization Blitz program in Central New York and the Mohawk Valley aims to help lower-income residents reduce their home heating costs by 10 to 15 percent this winter.
The initiative distributes kits containing items to help improve heating, lighting and water efficiency in the home, and also includes energy conservation guide booklets with additional savings tips, according to NYPA.
The kits also include caulk for doors and windows, weather-stripping and door sweeps, shrink-fit window kits, compact fluorescent bulbs and an LED nightlight fixture, a hot-water temperature gauge and refrigerator thermometer, and a low-flow showerhead and faucet aerators. Additionally, equipmentnt for testing for radon gas is included.
“The Weatherization Blitz Program is part of a comprehensive plan announced in September by Governor Paterson to help needy New Yorkers handle their home heating costs this winter,” said NYPA President and CEO Richard Kessel. “While fossil-fuel prices have fallen with the downturn in the economy, heating costs can still make a serious dent in family budgets, particularly for low-income households. The Power Authority is pleased to support the Governor’s overall efforts through our distribution of these weatherization kits to community-owned electric systems like the Solvay Electric Department for the lower-income residents they serve.”
The eligibility standard for the weatherization kits is in line with the qualification under the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), a federally funded initiative. The average family of four must make less than $45,000 gross income annually to qualify.
In September 2008, the Power Authority Trustees authorized up to five million dollars for the Weatherization Blitz Program.
The Power Authority is expecting to distribute between 20,000 to 30,000 kits to municipal electric systems and rural cooperatives in various parts of the state.
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